Weighing the head and heart for 2026 Oscars picks

By Willie Wittezehler
Reader Contributor

For me, the Oscars are basically the Super Bowl. My family has treated them that way for years. We dress up in tuxes and gowns, walk a makeshift red carpet down my aunt and uncle’s hallway, and spend the evening sprawled across the living room watching the ceremony in full formalwear. The real competition, though, is the betting pool. I do not win every year, but I am usually in the running, which requires paying a slightly embarrassing amount of attention to the long march known as “awards season.” 

The Oscars are not really a one-night event — they are the grand finale of months of precursor awards. If you follow those closely enough, Oscar predictions can start to feel less like guesswork and more like a science. 

Except not this year. 

The precursor results have been all over the map, leaving many categories looking like genuine coin flips. What has become clear is that this year is shaping up as a heavyweight bout between two extraordinary films: One Battle After Another (which I’ll shorten to OBAA from here on) and Sinners — two films that seem destined to live on in long-term cinema canon. 

To frame my predictions, I’m splitting my ballot in two: the pick my head says will win, and the one my heart is rooting for. And yes, that conveniently gives me two guesses in every category. Let’s get into it. 

Best Supporting Actor

My head says Sean Penn for OBAA. He has swept most of the key precursor awards with the kind of big, bold performance the Academy loves to reward. My heart, however, is with Delroy Lindo for Sinners. Lindo brings a depth and gravitas that quietly anchors the film’s most powerful moments. The dark horse here is Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value, whose quietly devastating performance could sneak in if the vote splits. 

Best Supporting Actress

My head and heart are in complete agreement: Amy Madigan for Weapons. Her performance as the nightmarish matriarch at the heart of the film feels like the creation of a new cinematic icon. That said, the competition is fierce. Wunmi Mosaku is mesmerizing in Sinners and Teyana Taylor delivers an electric performance in OBAA. 

Best Actor

My head says Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. He has been circling an Oscar for years, and this charismatic high-wire performance feels like the role that could finally push him over the line. My heart, though, is with Michael B. Jordan for Sinners. His performance as twin brothers is remarkably subtle, distinguishing the two characters through small shifts in posture, tone and energy. A dark horse worth mentioning is Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent. 

Best Actress

My head confidently says Jessie Buckley for Hamnet. The emotional depths she reaches practically burn through the screen, and the final sequence is devastating. My heart goes out to the rest of the field. The effortless charisma of Kate Hudson, the emotional complexity of Renate Reinsve, the gonzo swings we’ve come to love from Emma Stone and the rawness of Rose Byrne make this a truly stacked lineup.

Best Original Screenplay

Both my head and heart are with Sinners. Ryan Coogler has built a career on something very few filmmakers can pull off: creating massive crowd-pleasing movies that remain rooted in deeper ideas about history, identity and culture. If the Academy wants to reward a fresh cinematic voice, this feels like the place to do it. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

My head says OBAA, written by Paul Thomas Anderson. Anderson will go down as one of the great filmmakers of our time, but his writing in particular may be his real superpower. My heart goes to Train Dreams, with a screenplay by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar. Denis Johnson’s novella is such a quiet, perfect piece of writing that adapting it almost feels impossible, and the filmmakers did an admirable job. 

Best Director

My head says Anderson for OBAA. The scale, confidence and precision of this film feel like the work of a filmmaker at the peak of their powers. My heart, though, is with Coogler for Sinners. Coogler has shown remarkable deftness within genre, from elevating superhero storytelling in Black Panther to bringing emotional depth to the sports drama in Creed, and now turning horror into American folklore. 

Rapid fire predictions

KPop Demon Hunters should take both Animated Feature and Original Song for the infectious anthem “Golden.” Sinners looks strong in Original Score. OBAA feels like the favorite for Cinematography and Editing, while Frankenstein could dominate Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. Visual Effects seems like a safe bet for Avatar: Fire and Ash, and Sentimental Value is my pick for International Feature Film. 

Best Picture

This year the race really comes down to two giants: OBAA and Sinners. My head says OBAA. Its steady run through the precursor awards suggests it may have just enough momentum to carry it across the finish line. But my heart is firmly with Sinners. Either way, both films represent the best of this movie year, and this choice is going to be debated for years to come. 

I would also be remiss not to mention Train Dreams. It may not have a real shot at the trophy, but seeing a film rooted in North Idaho history standing shoulder to shoulder with Hollywood’s biggest contenders is pretty special. 

However the awards shake out, this has been an incredible year for movies. If you haven’t caught some of these yet, track them down. The Oscars air at 4 p.m., Sunday, March 15 on ABC.